Will North Korea Collapse?

Super Bowl XLI today!

although I haven't been following any sports for awhile now, I happened to tune into the AFC championship game last week and watched Peyton Manning and the Colts edge one out against Tom Brady and the Patriots~ Since Peyton's 'bout the only NFL QB I know these days, I am rooting for the guy of course! dunno what the Bears got but ppl seem to root for 'em more~ but go Colts!

anyways, this seems to be beside the topic of North Korea~ I should have put down something 'bout last friday sooner but I haven't gotten the time until now...

so last friday I went to a speech about North Korea by Professors Han S.Park and Kyung-Ae Park hosted at the CK Choi building just in front of the Asian Center at UBC~the topic is three fold: "Where is North Korea Going?", "Why Does North Korea Do What It Does?", and "Will North Korea Collapse?" (as you may see, I just copied and pasted the topic:P)Apparently, Professor Han S.Park is the leading North American authority on North Korea and has made 40 trips to perhaps the world's last "closed" country in his lifetime~ Professor Han S.Park has also appeared for interview on CNN and ABC's world news with Peter Jennings etc~ on the other hand, Professor Kyung-Ae Park is a former student of Professor Han S.Park and also a leading authority of North Korean affairs in North America~

it was a packed event~ dunno if it's because there were just many interested people or it was just held in a small room (room 129, the one by the window)~ anyways, to cut to the point and make a long story short, I'll try to summarize what I can still recall from friday's speech~

basically, Professor Kyung-Ae Park's argument is as follows:

North Korea will not fall in the distant future due to a lack of grassroot force to stimulate regime change. Implosion is unlikely to occur, only explosion seems like a possibility.

although Professor Park started off her speech by giving the audience a "yes and no" answer, the picture sketched out to me seems pretty negative~

her argument is based on a few points (if I can still recall a few...):

• people lack the civil morale needed to instigate change from a grassroot level
  
• capitalist penetration ie economic penetration a possibility for regime change? possibly, but N.Korea may be an anamoly b/c gov't banning the circulation of capitalist goods smuggled in from S.Korea such as cell phones (hand phones in Korea) and S.Korean drama~ people are tightly supervised and lack the strength to coalesce and establish an influential network against the regime
• NGOs and IGOs aren't particularly effective as theyre all ordered out of the country
• about 300 defectors in China have started a campaign against the regime~ however, their efforts are negligible as China is rumoured to back North Korea with food and supplies
• government officials are allowed to study science and medicine abroad but banned from receiving knowledge on the social sciences~ this induces a ban on travelling to governmental headquarters or institutions that may cede this kind of info to North Koreans

since civil contingence is outta the question, Professor Park suggests explosion as the only means to induce a regime change~ this comes to the conclusion that some world power, presumably the US, like Iraq is not enough, will need to launch an attack/nuclear assualt to bring down the regime~... pretty grim picture eh?

however, Professor Park did mention that some geomancer/diviner in Korea predicted that Kim Jung Il will be no more this year~ let's just cross our fingers....

Kim Jung Il - a commie portrait

let's turn to the other Professor Park now, Professor Kyung-Ae Park's mentor~

the knowledgeable man

instead of giving the audience a direct answer such as "North Korea will collapse", Professor Han S.Park proposed that in order to understand the N.Korean situation, it is important to understand its history~ history may offer us insights on why N.Korea is acting the way it does~ here are a couple points I gauged from the revered man:

• North Korea feel its victimized in the international community~ it never envisioned a partition with South Korea and has always thought that Korea should be one country~ with S.Korea's evolution into a democracy and its economy booming, N.Korea sees S.Korea as a defector or a victim who has fell before the capitalist evil~ it's N.Korea's duty to take up the heroic cause of defending Korea and unite the penninsula under one banner (twisted? nah~sounds like TW to me...)
• strong distrust of the US as back in the Korean War, US ruthlessly bombed Pyongyang and other N.Korean cities, killing tens of thousands of civilians and destroying infrastructures etc~
  
• strong distrust of the capitalist world (presumably grew from the distrust against the Americans)~ with its economy lagging behind others and economic sanctions enforced against it, N.Korea feels insecure in a world dominated by capitalism~ its insecurity grew into a thinking that prioritizes military power as a means of guaranteeing its security and whatever left for it to salvage in the capitalist world~ instead of falling back on a strong economy to uphold its stability, N.Korea has decided to rely on military to guarantee its security~ apparently, for N.Korea, power should be projected in an opposite fashion from the world~

Professor Park's proposals led him to argue against Professor Kyung-Ae Park's suggestion of "explosion as the only means of toppling the regime"~ instead, Professor Han S.Park argues that North Korea will soon dismantle its nuclear program, meanwhile, merely holding onto the nuclear card as a bargaining chip at the table~ some points in favour of this conclusion are:

• nuclear technology is not hard to learn and adapt~ since N.Korea's program is merely starting up right now, it could give up its program any time, using its forfeit as a bargaining chip at the table~ by abandoning the nuclear program, it doesn't mean that N.Korea could not start up the program again, as it has apt scientists waiting by the sideline~
• N.Korea acts as a rational thinker as it understands that it vitally need the economic support of countries holding diplomatic ties with it~ if another weapon is deployed, N.Korea understands that it may stir up a regional arms race that my escalate on an international level~ backed by a poor economy, N.Korea cannot hope to keep up with an arms race if it occurs~ Japan would no doubt become a powerful nuclear power in a short time and threaten N.Korean security~

Kim Il Sung statue (apparently a tourist site...)

• believe it or not, Kim Il Sung actually professed that Korea should be nuclear free! as silly as this may sound, Kim actually thinks nuclear weapon is an evil that should have nothing to do with the peaceful Korean people~ from this point, Professor Park suggests that N.Korea today is still pretty much Kim Il Sung's country, as Kim Jung Il lacks the charisma and leadership to impose his authority over the people~ an interesting side note suggested by Professor Park is that instead of having blanks for people to jot down their plans, table calendars in N.Korea are filled with daily directives from Kim Il Sung, which are still obeyed by the ordinary~ clearly, Kim Jung Il is still in the shade...

A Happy Kim Il Sung

there was another point mentioned by Professor Park but I didn't quite catch it as my mind kinda wandered off, trying to think of a good question to ask at the end of his speech~ unfortunately, time was limited so I didn't put out any questions to the professor~ just another side note, Professor Han S.Park also mentioned that since N.Korea has an underground subway that is 100m deep and can encompass the entire N.Korean population, a nuclear strike against the state may be futile, as the entire population could just hide underground~ the most powerful nuclear weapon the States own only goes down 50m~ XD

anyways, it was an interesting speech and it made me think a lot about the N.Korean situation~ hopefully you've enjoyed reading my brief summary! :D